The total U.S. building products market will continue building on exponential growth seen in 2020 and 2021, growing by an additional 2.9% from 2023 through 2025—with the consumer market growing by 2.3% and the professional market growing by 4.6%—according to research by the Home Improvement Research Institute conducted in partnership with IHS Markit.
"The home improvement industry had explosive growth during the Coronavirus pandemic due primarily to DIY projects, but that may now be driven by pros," HIRI Research Director Matthew Craig said. "We are glad to now provide the home and building industry some insight into what they can expect as we continue to navigate a post-Pandemic world."
In the short term, the forecast predicts the total building products market to grow by 13% in 2021, with the consumer market growing by 10.8% and the professional market growing by 18.2%.
In 2022, the total building products market is forecasted to grow by an additional 2.3%, with the consumer market growing by 0.2% and the professional market growing by 7.1%.
These findings indicate a curtailment of DIY growth as an overall share of home improvement product sales in 2022, as many homeowners completed planned projects throughout this year and the last, according to the data.
However, growth will continue further in the professional products market, as COVID-19 restrictions ease and projects once on hold resume, according to HIRI.
This means demand for certain products will continue to increase in areas where contractor-led projects are high, the Institute said.
"The strong home improvement outlook provided by pandemic behavior has been given new life by this year's improved employment gains, increased access to vaccinations and additional stimulus measures. All have boosted consumer confidence and the housing market in particular," IHS Markit Managing Director Scott Hazelton said. "While the boom cannot last forever, a continuing strong economy suggests spending by contractors will actually improve year-over-year as households feel more comfortable with contractors in their home."
Top growing merchandise lines for professionals
Compound annual growth rate for the professional market between 2021-2025:
- Siding and exterior trim: 11%;
- Gypsum & specialty boards: 9.5%;
- Dimensional lumber & boards: 8.4%;
- Roofing & supplies: 8.2%;
- Doors & molding: 8%;
- Kitchen & bath cabinets: 7.9%;
- Major household appliances: 7.9%
The research was released to HIRI members at the end of Q3 in the biannual Home Improvement Products Market Forecast.